Brent at $107, Up 18% on the Week; Iran Boards Cargo Ship on Film, Asia Crude Imports Hit 10-Year Low, Diesel Output Loss Reaches 1-2 Million bpd

Friday, April 24, 2026

Brent(June) $107.00 | WTI (June) $97.41 Brent +1.93 (+1.8%), WTI +1.58 (+1.7%).

Brent up 18% on the week, WTI up 15%, second largest weekly gains since the war began. Iran releases footage of commandos boarding cargo ship in Hormuz; Asia crude imports tracking 22% below year-ago levels at 10-year low; diesel and jet fuel output loss estimated at 1-2 million bpd; Trump says he will not set a timetable for ending the conflict.

Bottom Line

The week's 18% Brent gain tells you where the market has landed after oscillating between ceasefire optimism and physical reality for two weeks -- physical reality is winning. Iran releasing footage of commandos boarding a cargo ship is a deliberate messaging choice, not an accidental disclosure. Tehran is signaling that it controls the strait and intends to keep demonstrating that control regardless of whatever ceasefire framework Washington announces unilaterally. Trump saying Iran may have used the ceasefire to rearm, combined with his refusal to set any timetable and "don't rush me" framing, suggests the administration has settled into an open-ended posture with no defined endpoint.

The Asian refining data is where the conflict's economic damage is most concretely visible this week. Crude imports tracking at a 10-year low of 20.4 million bpd in April, Asian refinery runs dropping to 28.5-28.6 million bpd in April and May, and Singapore utilization below 50% are not temporary disruptions -- they represent a structural reshaping of the world's largest refining region that will take months to unwind even after Hormuz reopens. The crude grade substitution story compounds the damage: replacing medium-sour Gulf crude with light-sweet WTI and West African grades cuts middle distillate yields from roughly 60% to 40%, translating directly into the 1-2 million bpd diesel and jet fuel supply loss Rystad and Kpler are estimating. That product shortfall is what keeps European diesel above $200 per barrel and jet fuel cash differentials at record levels regardless of what crude prices do.

Top Developments

Iran Boards Cargo Ship on Film, Hormuz Remains Blocked

Iran released footage of IRGC commandos boarding a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, a deliberate public signal that Tehran maintains physical control of the waterway. Two cargo ships captured earlier in the week remain in Iranian custody. Trump acknowledged Iran may have used the ceasefire period to restock weaponry while maintaining his indefinite ceasefire extension with no timetable for resolution. Reports of air defense engagements over Tehran Thursday and signs of a power struggle between Iranian hardliners and moderates added to uncertainty.

Asia Crude Imports at 10-Year Low, Refinery Runs Falling Through May

Asian crude imports are tracking at 20.4 million bpd in April, down 22% year-on-year and the lowest since 2016, per Kpler provisional data. The IEA pegged Asian refinery runs at 29.4 million bpd in March, falling to 28.6 million bpd in April and 28.5 million bpd in May. Singapore refinery utilization has averaged below 50% against a normal 70%. Indian crude runs fell nearly 13% to roughly 5 million bpd in April from February. South Korean and Japanese utilization rates are expected to drop to 65% in late April and early May. China's weekly throughput fell to 13.4 million bpd in the week to April 17 from 15.4 million bpd pre-war.

Crude Grade Switch Cutting Diesel and Jet Output by Up to 2 Million bpd

Asian refiners replacing lost medium-sour Gulf crude with light-sweet WTI, West African grades and CPC Blend have pushed light-sweet crude's share of Asia's slate to a record 21% in April from 11% in February. Middle East crudes typically yield 60% middle distillates versus roughly 40% for WTI, with Rystad estimating the yield loss translates to 250,000 to 500,000 bpd of diesel and jet supply reduction from grade substitution alone. Combined with run cuts and government export curbs, Kpler's Sumit Ritolia estimates total middle distillate supply losses in April at 1.8 to 2.0 million bpd, mostly diesel. Recovery in June depends entirely on a Hormuz resolution that keeps the strait durably open.