Kpler Puts Gulf Crude Flows at 8.5 Million bpd, Down From Over 20 Million, as Trump Waives Russia Sanctions

Monday, October 19, 2026 | 6:45 AM ET

Brent (December) $108.33 | WTI (November) $100.91

Brent -$1.53 (-1.4%), WTI -$0.50 (-0.5%), easing from a five-month high. Brent settled Friday at its highest since May 19 and touched $110 intraday, and WTI closed at its highest since September 17. Kpler says at least 10 confirmed incidents involving commercial vessels were reported last week. Trump signed an executive order Friday waiving key Russia sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act.

Bottom Line

Kpler’s weekly numbers are the sharpest physical data point since the September recovery. Intensified attacks on commercial vessels cut Gulf crude flows to about 8.5 million bpd on a seven-day average last week, from more than 20 million bpd the week before, with at least 10 confirmed vessel incidents. Initial weekly figures have tended to be revised higher later as dark transits resurface, and Goldman Sachs’ October 11 note put those revisions at about 4 million bpd on average, so the final number is likely to be above 8.5 million. Even so, a drop of that size shows how fast the export recovery can reverse. Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, said in a video on X that US forces helped ship more than 100 million barrels of crude through Hormuz in the past seven days and that about 400 merchant ships sailed through. That equals roughly 14 million bpd. It is a US military claim, it is not independently verified, and his earlier statement that the strait was mine-free was disputed by US allies. The two figures measure different things and can’t be reconciled from what has been published.

The Russia waiver is a signal more than a supply change so far. Trump’s order waives key sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act, which he signed last month at the urging of lawmakers who wanted to pressure Moscow. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the president will take up to 60 days to assess the impact on the global economy, so the length of the waiver is unsettled. It follows the diesel deal Trump announced with Putin: about 2.3 million barrels this month, rising to about 7.6 million barrels monthly. That is roughly 250,000 bpd at the higher figure, against the roughly 2 million bpd of products Vitol’s Russell Hardy said last month is missing from Russia. KCM Trade’s Tim Waterer said mixed messaging has created uncertainty and the market is unlikely to price in a sustained supply increase until the details and duration are clear. Phillip Nova’s Priyanka Sachdeva called it another desperate attempt to keep prices in check ahead of the midterms, and said it does little to address supply disruptions in Hormuz. Zelenskiy said these US actions will hurt Ukraine.

DBS’ Suvro Sarkar expects Brent to stay in a $100 to $110 range into the November 3 midterms. In his view Iran and its proxies will keep oil and domestic fuel prices the main irritant for US voters, while the levers Trump has pulled, including the Russia waivers, are short-term fixes with little structural effect on supply. Friday’s $110 touch sits at the top of that range.

The Saudi-Houthi conflict is drawing in more states. Egypt said it is ready to provide Saudi Arabia with the support it needs to defend its security and stability against the Houthis. The reporting here doesn’t say what support, and there is no sign of a deployment. Syria was weighing military aid to Saudi Arabia two weeks ago. Egypt also controls the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline, which carry Saudi crude out of the Red Sea, so a wider conflict there would put a second bypass route in play.