Morning Highlights: Brent Rebounds to $98 as Ceasefire Viability Questioned; Iran Still Requiring Hormuz Permits, Fresh Gulf Attacks Continue

Thursday, April 9, 2026 | 6:15 AM ET

Market Snapshot

Brent (June) $98.23 | WTI (May) $99.14 Brent +3.48 (+3.6%), WTI +4.73 (+4.9%), recovering roughly a quarter of Wednesday's historic selloff. VLCC tanker rates more than doubled to W513 from W230 pre-war. Ceasefire viability in doubt as Iran continues requiring Hormuz transit permits and strikes Kuwait, Bahrain and UAE after announcement; Goldman cuts Q2 Brent forecast to $90; Russia's April oil tax revenue doubles to $9 billion; first tankers beginning to position for Hormuz transit.

Bottom Line

Wednesday's 14% collapse is already partially reversing and Vandana Hari's read is the correct one: the futures market looks broken because prices should have snapped back to pre-ceasefire levels by now if the ceasefire were actually functioning. The reason they have not is that the ceasefire is not functioning in any meaningful physical sense. Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE all reported fresh missile and drone attacks after the announcement. Iran's IRGC navy is still broadcasting the transit permission requirement to vessels near the strait. Iran told mediators that continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon make it unreasonable to proceed with permanent peace talks. The two-week truce is wobbling within 24 hours of its announcement and the physical conditions that would allow meaningful cargo flow have not been established. Iran publishing mine maps showing safe corridors is operationally useful and signals some genuine intent to allow selective passage, but shippers require more than a map -- they require insurance coverage, war risk assessments, port clearances and confidence that the IRGC unit on patrol today received the same ceasefire instructions as the foreign ministry official who spoke to the press. VLCC rates doubling to W513 from W230 pre-war captures the market's real assessment: ships are willing to go back into the Gulf but at a price that reflects the risk has not been eliminated, only partially reduced. Glencore chartering a Suezmax to load from Basra at W860 and Taiwan's CPC booking 2 million barrels tells you the demand to move barrels is enormous and pent up after six weeks of near-zero flow. The vessel positioning data is the most constructive signal of the morning: Chinese and Indian VLCCs moving toward the strait, tankers topping up Upper Zakum crude at Zirku, Iraq's Basra terminals signaling readiness to resume exports. The physical machinery of Gulf oil trade is trying to restart. Whether it can do so through a ceasefire framework that Iran is simultaneously undermining with continued Gulf attacks is the question the next 48 hours will answer. Goldman cutting Q2 Brent to $90 reflects a normalization assumption that the physical and diplomatic picture this morning does not yet support. Russia's oil tax revenue doubling to $9 billion in April - Urals at $77 per barrel against a budget assumption of $59 - is the clearest quantification yet of who has benefited most from six weeks of Gulf disruption. The Kremlin receiving a huge number of energy requests from across the world while Ukraine systematically attacks the infrastructure generating that windfall is the Ukraine war's energy dimension playing out in real time against the backdrop of the larger Gulf crisis.

Top Developments

Ceasefire Viability in Question; Gulf States Report Fresh Attacks After Announcement

Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE all reported missile and drone attacks from Iran following the ceasefire announcement. Iran told mediators that continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon make it unreasonable to proceed with permanent peace talks. The IRGC navy continues broadcasting the transit permission requirement to vessels near the strait. Iran's position -- that Hormuz is open in coordination with Iranian armed forces -- is a permission regime, not a free waterway, and the post-ceasefire attack pattern suggests military units either were not fully informed of the truce or are operating under different orders than the foreign ministry.

First Tankers Position for Hormuz Transit, Rates Surge

Glencore provisionally chartered a Suezmax tanker to load from Iraq's Basra Oil Terminal at W860 on the Worldscale measure and Taiwan's CPC booked a tanker for approximately 2 million barrels of Gulf crude. Chinese VLCCs He Rong Hai and Cospearl Lake moved toward the strait Thursday, and Indian-flagged tankers carrying crude for state majors updated AIS positioning data. Several vessels called at UAE's Zirku port to top up Upper Zakum crude. Iraq signaled readiness to resume exports once the strait reopens. VLCC rates on the TD3C route have more than doubled to W513 from W230 pre-war, reflecting war risk premiums and vessel scarcity. Iran's IRGC published mine-avoidance maps for safe Hormuz corridors, which is operationally useful but insufficient for commercial shipping operators requiring full insurance and security clearance.

Goldman Cuts Q2 Brent to $90, Ceasefire Premium Partially Stripped

Goldman Sachs trimmed its Q2 2026 Brent forecast to $90 per barrel from $99 and WTI to $87 from $91 following the ceasefire announcement. Wealth Club's Susannah Streeter noted that even if shipments resume, tankers navigating mined waters with elevated military presence will keep insurance premiums and freight costs elevated for an extended period. Vanda Insights' Vandana Hari predicted continued volatility and said meaningful strait reopening in the near term looks dim.

Russia's April Oil Tax Revenue Doubles to $9 Billion

Russia's mineral extraction tax on oil will reach approximately 700 billion roubles in April, roughly $9 billion, doubling from 327 billion roubles in March, per Reuters calculations. Urals crude averaged $77 per barrel in March, up 73% from February's $44.59 and well above the $59 per barrel assumed in Russia's 2026 budget. The Kremlin reported a huge number of energy requests from across the world as the global crisis drove buyers toward any available non-Gulf supply. Russia ran a budget deficit of 4.58 trillion roubles in Q1 2026 despite the windfall, and Ukraine's ongoing attacks on Baltic and Black Sea export infrastructure continue to threaten the production levels generating that revenue.