Morning highlights: Brent Steady Near $89.50, on Track for Monthly Gain, as Market Shifts from War Headlines to Shipping Data

Friday, July 31, 2026 | 6:30 AM ET

Brent (Sept) $89.50 | WTI (September) $84.17 Brent +0.47, WTI +0.58, both on track for a monthly rise. Iran's Revolutionary Guards stopped two tankers from transiting Hormuz and forced four others to change course, per Fars; two VLCCs carrying Gulf-loaded crude did exit the strait Friday, though traffic remains thin. ADNOC has bought five VLCCs for about $590 million to expand its own fleet as the Red Sea and Hormuz crises tighten tanker availability

SEB's Ole Hvalbye captured the shift in this market well: it has stopped trading the war and started trading the shipping data.(for now) That's a meaningful change in what actually moves price day to day, and it fits what's showing up in the numbers. Bab el-Mandeb saw 29 vessels Thursday by one count and 26 by another, while Hormuz managed just two visible transits the same day, alongside the IRGC's active interdiction of two more tankers and four diversions. The gap between the two chokepoints has become the central data point traders are watching now, more than any single day's rhetoric.

The Saudi tanker diversions around Africa are the clearest sign yet that shippers aren't waiting for the Houthi threat to resolve. Six Bahri-owned VLCCs, the Hazm and Dilam signaling Gibraltar and the Ghinah, Laynah, Salam and Burqan indicating Durban or Algoa Bay, are making the full Cape of Good Hope run rather than risk Bab el-Mandeb, a detour that will likely add at least two weeks to their voyages. That's happening alongside, not instead of, Saudi Arabia's continued rerouting of Yanbu-loaded crude to Sidi Kerir on Egypt's Mediterranean coast, where the kingdom is reportedly exploring a new buyer pricing mechanism. Together these are structural adjustments to how Saudi crude reaches Asia, not short-term workarounds, and they're costly enough that they signal real conviction the Red Sea risk isn't going away soon.

Not every operator is making that same choice, which is worth noting rather than ignoring. Chinese and Pakistan-flagged vessels continue transiting Bab el-Mandeb, and two empty VLCCs, the Sinokor-owned Gabon Prosperity and the Chinese-flagged Rain Cubic, entered the Red Sea Thursday after delivering cargoes near Hormuz, both now signaling the Suez Canal. Analysts tracking the flow data note a pickup in tankers moving out of the Persian Gulf with transponders switched off following a recent lull, and separately a fully laden Hong Kong-flagged supertanker, the Noble, openly signaled its exit from the Gulf with Iraqi crude Friday. The mix of dark transits and at least one open, fully laden departure suggests operators are making individually calculated risk decisions rather than following a uniform playbook, which is consistent with a market of selective access rather than either a clean blockade or a full reopening.

The Damietta drone strike is the development most likely to matter if it repeats. The Suez Canal has functioned as one of the last reliable export routes for Saudi crude precisely because Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz are both compromised, so any credible threat to Suez itself, even an indirect one via a nearby port, would remove the market's remaining safety valve. It's too early to say this was anything more than an isolated incident, but it's the kind of headline that could reprice risk quickly if it recurs.

Diplomacy remains alive in form but thin in substance. Talks between Iran and Oman on Hormuz management reportedly continue despite Iran's formal rejection of the joint management proposal, which reads as Tehran keeping a channel open while holding its position rather than any real softening. Saudi Arabia's push to lead a defense coalition covering Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden is a parallel signal that Gulf states are now planning around sustained disruption rather than a near-term resolution.

Top Developments

Hormuz Traffic Stays Thin as IRGC Interdicts Tankers, Bab el-Mandeb Sees Steadier Flow

Iran's Revolutionary Guards stopped two tankers from transiting Hormuz and forced four others to change course Friday, per Fars news agency, though two VLCCs carrying Gulf-loaded crude did exit the strait. Bab el-Mandeb saw 29 commodity vessels transit Thursday by one Reuters count and 26 by Kpler's, against just two visible Hormuz transits the same day. Analysts tracking flow data note a pickup in dark-transponder tankers leaving the Gulf, while the Hong Kong-flagged Noble openly signaled a fully laden exit with Iraqi crude Friday.

Six Saudi VLCCs Divert Around Africa, ADNOC Buys Five Tankers to Expand Its Own Fleet

Six Bahri-owned VLCCs carrying Saudi crude are sailing around Africa rather than risk Bab el-Mandeb, with the Hazm and Dilam signaling Gibraltar and four others indicating South African ports, adding an estimated two weeks or more to their voyages. ADNOC separately bought five VLCCs for about $590 million to expand its fleet as tanker availability tightens across both the Red Sea and Hormuz. Saudi Arabia continues diverting some Yanbu-loaded, Asia-bound crude to Egypt's Sidi Kerir, where it is reportedly exploring a new pricing mechanism for buyers.

Damietta Drone Strike Raises New Threat to Suez Canal Shipping

A drone strike sparked fires on two gas vessels yesterday at Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta, raising concern over a new threat to Suez Canal traffic, one of the last major routes still available to Saudi oil exports amid the wider disruption to Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz. Separately, Ukraine's military said it struck Russia's Volgograd oil refinery overnight, causing a fire at the facility. Talks between Iran and Oman on Hormuz management reportedly continue despite Iran's rejection of Oman's joint management proposal, while Saudi Arabia is seeking to lead a defense coalition covering Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.