Morning Highlights: Markets Weigh Peace Talks, Rates, and Tanker Disruptions

Monday, November 24, 2025

Oil prices slipped early Monday, extending last week’s decline as traders balanced the prospect of a U.S.–Ukraine peace plan against shifting expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut.

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Market Snapshot

• Brent down 32 cents to $62.24 by 6:00 EST; WTI down 30 cents at $57.76.

• Crude is coming off a ~3% weekly decline, with year-to-date losses near 17%.

• Market tone remains macro-driven, dominated by U.S. policymaking and shifting geopolitical risk.

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Geopolitics & Russia Supply

• U.S. and Ukraine now revising the peace plan ahead of Thursday’s deadline, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio said timing “might not be set in stone.”

• A deal could potentially ease sanctions that just took effect Friday on Rosneft and Lukoil, suppressing the usual upward price impulse from supply risk.

• Russia remains the world’s No. 2 crude producer, underscoring the stakes for any sanction rollback.

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Macro & Fed Expectations

• Uncertainty around a December rate decision continues to cap risk appetite.

• NY Fed President John Williams hinted at potential near-term easing, lifting odds of a cut versus last week’s sentiment.

• Analysts note that improved risk appetite could counterbalance bearish supply-side pressure.

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Shipping & Tanker Rates

• VLCC rates on the Middle East–China route hit five-year highs at $137,000/day last Friday as Asian buyers seek alternatives to Russian crude.

• Rates up 576% since January, with other key VLCC routes at their highest since 2020 (~$116,400/day).

• Surging “oil-in-transit” volumes and floating storage across Asia (now 53 million barrels) continue tightening tanker availability.

• Sanction-related disruptions driving more crude into long-haul routes, shrinking shipping capacity and amplifying rate spikes.

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• Traders increasingly preoccupied with peace deal optics rather than supply constraints, muting bullish reactions to sanctions.

• Analysts highlight emerging “value buying” interest at current levels following the year’s persistent downside drift.

• Montepeque (Onyx) notes the market is “overwhelmingly focused on the macro view.”

Macro remains in the driver’s seat. The peace-deal narrative is pulling more weight than fresh sanctions, while tanker market stress is tightening physical logistics without translating into immediate price support. Markets appear poised to react sharply to any clarity on sanctions durability or Fed direction this week.