Morning Highlights: Oil Falls More Than 4% as Iranian Negotiators Leave Doha With a Draft Proposa

Monday, November 2, 2026 | 6:45 AM ET

Brent (January) $108.49 | WTI (December) $99.39

Brent -$4.94 (-4.4%), WTI -$4.73 (-4.5%). Brent ended October at a six-month high and settled near $118 on Friday. Iranian negotiators left the Doha talks with Qatari mediators carrying a draft proposal, with a possible follow-up meeting. US midterm elections are Tuesday.

Bottom Line

The sell off is a diplomatic headline trade. Iranian negotiators left Doha with a draft proposal circulating among the Qatari mediators and a possible follow-up meeting. Foreign Minister Araqchi said the talks are “ongoing and progressing” and that Tehran is prepared for “both defense and diplomacy.” Nothing has been agreed, and the draft is the same kind of text a senior Iranian official dismissed last week as ideas that did not amount to an offer. KCM’s Tim Waterer tied the weakness to the absence of escalation over the weekend

The calm sits right before Tuesday’s US midterms. Goldman Sachs raised its December forecast to $105 a barrel for brent from $90 in a note on Sunday, and its WTI forecast to $94 from $81. It puts the risk premium at about $27 a barrel and cites Polymarket pricing for the chance of the ceasefire ending through escalation, up from about 10% before the election to around 50% by November 15. Goldman says the market is focused on three kinds of post-midterm action: strikes on underground nuclear sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, strikes on missile facilities near Hormuz such as Bandar Abbas, and broader strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure such as power plants and Kharg Island. Its upside case is $140 Brent in 2027 if Gulf output stays 3.5 million bpd below the 2025 average. These are Goldman’s scenarios, and the Polymarket odds are a market gauge, not an announced policy.

Supply data was mixed in tone but firm in volume. Two of three ship trackers show Saudi exports rose in October. Iraq’s Ceyhan exports reached 500,000 bpd, with roughly 200,000 bpd of that Basrah crude, and Iraq’s total October exports topped 3.4 million bpd. ADNOC’s chief executive said nearly 1 billion barrels have been drained from inventories since the war began.

OPEC+ held its December targets. The capacity review is expected by mid-November, and Rystad’s Jorge Leon said the full 21-country meeting on November 29 is the real test. The IEA and others warn of a 2027 surplus if flows normalize, which is the backdrop Goldman’s base case leans on in saying prices drift below the forwards.