Morning Highlights: Oil Plunges 7% as Trump Says War "Very Complete"; IRGC Vows Not One Liter of Oil Exports, Bangladesh Rations Fuel and Closes Universities

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

MARKET SNAPSHOT

Oil plummeted after Trump said the war against Iran was "very complete" and Russia's Putin proposed a quick settlement, triggering the sharpest single-day reversal since the conflict began. Brent crude fell $7.71 to $91.25/bbl by 6:00 AM EST, after dropping as much as 11% earlier. WTI declined $7.31 to $87.46/bbl. Both contracts had surged past $100 on Monday to their highest since mid-2022 before retreating. Murban and Dubai physical grades remain well above $100/bbl.

Trump told CBS News the war was "very complete" and Washington was "very far ahead" of his initial 4-5 week timeline. Separately, Putin held a call with Trump and shared proposals for a quick settlement. The combination triggered a massive unwind of the panic premium that pushed Brent to $119 intraday Monday. But as DBS's Sarkar noted: "While there was an overreaction to the upside yesterday, we think there is an overreaction to the downside today."

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TOP DEVELOPMENTS

Trump Says War "Very Complete," Putin Proposes Quick Settlement

Trump said in a CBS interview that he thought the war against Iran was "very complete" and Washington was "very far ahead" of schedule. Separately, Putin called Trump and shared proposals for a quick settlement, according to a Kremlin aide.

This is the Trump pattern we've tracked since December, now operating at a vastly larger scale. Escalate violently, then signal de-escalation. The difference is that this time the physical disruption is real and cannot be reversed by a tweet. Iraq is down 70%, Kuwait is under force majeure, Qatar LNG is shut, Bahrain's BAPCO is in force majeure, Hormuz is still closed, and hundreds of tankers remain stranded. "Very complete" doesn't mean facilities restart tomorrow.

IRGC Responds: "Not One Liter" of Oil Will Be Exported

Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded directly to Trump, saying they would "determine the end of the war" and Tehran would not allow "one liter of oil" to be exported from the region if U.S. and Israeli attacks continued. This is the most explicit threat yet that Hormuz closure will continue as long as the conflict does.

The market sold off on Trump's de-escalation signal but may be underpricing the IRGC response. The new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated hardliner control just yesterday. The Revolutionary Guards, not diplomats, control Hormuz. Their statement says the blockade continues regardless of what Trump says about the war being "complete." Ground realities have not changed.

Trump Considering Easing Russia Oil Sanctions and SPR Release

Trump is considering easing oil sanctions on Russia and releasing emergency crude stockpiles as part of a package to curb spiking prices, according to multiple sources. This builds on last week's Treasury waivers for Indian refiners to buy sanctioned Russian crude.

If the U.S. formally eases Russian oil sanctions, it would be the most significant shift in energy geopolitics since the sanctions were imposed in 2022. Combined with the Treasury waivers already granted, it would fully reopen Russian crude flows to global markets, particularly India and potentially Europe. This is the single most bearish policy option available and could add 1-2M bpd of accessible supply to global markets. Goldman maintaining its $66 Q4 Brent forecast despite the crisis suggests they're pricing some version of this normalization.

G7 Stops Short of Committing to Reserve Release

G7 nations said Monday they were prepared to implement "necessary measures" in response to surging prices but stopped short of committing to emergency reserve releases. The language suggests disagreement among members, likely over timing and scale.

The hesitation is notable. In 2022, the G7/IEA coordinated releases within days of the Russia-Ukraine invasion price spike. Ten days into this conflict with prices above $90, they're still discussing. The U.S. SPR at 60% capacity is likely the constraint, with Washington reluctant to draw down reserves that took years to partially rebuild.

Bangladesh: Fuel Rationing, University Closures, Garment Industry Hit

Bangladesh has imposed fuel rationing for vehicles, restricted diesel sales, and closed universities as the conflict disrupts energy imports. The country of 175 million relies on imports for 95% of its energy needs and has roughly one month of diesel coverage with additional shipments being arranged. Power cuts have doubled to up to five hours per day. Garment manufacturers, the country's second-largest export industry globally, report they can't buy enough diesel to run backup generators.

This is the first concrete example of the humanitarian and economic fallout hitting developing nations. Bangladesh is receiving emergency diesel from PetroChina (27K metric tons arrived Monday), Vitol (28K tons waiting at Chittagong), and cross-border pipeline supply from India's Numaligarh Refinery (5K tons). These are stopgap measures for a country that processes almost no crude domestically. If the conflict extends weeks, Bangladesh won't be the only developing country rationing fuel.

Pakistan Launches Naval Escort Operation

Pakistan launched Operation Muhafizul Bahr to safeguard shipping and energy supplies, with naval ships escorting merchant vessels carrying essential cargo. About 90% of Pakistan's trade moves by sea, making maritime route security critical. This follows Trump's own Navy escort proposal from last week.

Physical Market Reality Check

DBS's Sarkar made a critical point: Murban and Dubai physical grades remain well above $100/bbl despite the futures pullback. The physical market, where actual barrels trade, has not followed the futures selloff. This disconnect suggests the futures move is driven by Trump's rhetoric while the physical market is pricing the reality that Hormuz is still closed, facilities are still shut, and barrels still aren't flowing.

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BOTTOM LINE

The $119 to $91 round trip in 24 hours is the most violent oil price action since 2022, and both the spike and the crash are probably wrong. Monday's $119 was pure panic. Tuesday's $91 is overpricing Trump's "very complete" rhetoric while underpricing the physical reality on the ground. As Sarkar said, practically nothing has changed in terms of ground realities with Murban and Dubai still above $100.

The IRGC's "not one liter" response is the most important signal today and the market is largely ignoring it in the rush to sell. The Revolutionary Guards control Hormuz, not Trump. Mojtaba Khamenei was just installed as supreme leader to maintain hardliner control. The Strait remains closed, 300+ tankers remain stranded, Iraq is down 70%, Kuwait is under force majeure, Qatar LNG is shut. Trump saying the war is "very complete" doesn't restart a single barrel of Iraqi production or reopen the Strait.

The policy toolkit is becoming clearer: easing Russia sanctions (the most impactful single measure, potentially adding 1-2M bpd of accessible crude), G7 SPR releases (if they can agree), and Treasury waivers for sanctioned oil purchases. Phillip Nova's Sachdeva captured the market logic: once traders sensed supply routes could still be maintained, the panic premium faded. But "could be maintained" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence.

Goldman maintaining $66 Q4 Brent despite all of this is the most contrarian call in the market right now. It implies they believe Hormuz reopens, Gulf production restarts, and the underlying 2.3M bpd surplus reasserts itself within months. That's possible if Trump's "very complete" signal leads to actual ceasefire and Hormuz reopening. But the IRGC's response says otherwise, and the physical damage to facilities, logistics chains, and commercial relationships will take months to repair even in a best case.

The Bangladesh story is what $100+ oil means for the real world: fuel rationing, university closures, garment factories running short on diesel, power cuts doubling. This is a country of 175 million people. Scale that across developing Asia and Africa and you understand why the G7 is discussing emergency measures. The economic damage from this conflict is now locked into the supply chain regardless of how quickly it ends.

Watch for any concrete ceasefire signals versus the IRGC's continued defiance, G7 follow-through on reserve releases, and whether Trump formally eases Russian sanctions. The physical market (Murban/Dubai above $100) is telling you the truth. The futures market ($91 Brent) is trading hope. Somewhere between those two numbers is where we settle, and the IRGC has more control over which direction than Trump does right now.