Morning Highlights: Oil rises as OPEC+ restraint surprises markets; Libya restarts drilling, Denmark eyes shadow fleet

Monday, October 6, 2025

Crude prices rebounded more than 1% early Monday after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production hike for November, easing some pressure from recent supply-driven selloffs. Gains were tempered, however, by soft demand data and continued builds in U.S. inventories.

Market snapshot (06:30 EST):

• WTI (Nov): $61.92 (+$1.04 | +1.6%)

• Brent (Dec): $65.61 (+$1.08 | +1.5%)

OPEC+ moderation

• Group will raise output by just 137 kbpd in November, matching October’s increase—well below expectations for a larger hike.

• Russia had pushed for this smaller rise to avoid renewed price pressure, while Saudi Arabia reportedly favored a more aggressive expansion to recapture market share.

• Analysts say the restrained move still adds to an oversupplied Q4 balance, but signals OPEC+ caution amid weakening demand signals.

Macro & demand picture

• Last week’s EIA data showed U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all rose as refining slowed and product supplied (a proxy for demand) fell by 627 kbpd.

• Refinery maintenance season and sluggish consumption in the Atlantic Basin point to limited upside through year-end.

• Analysts from Rystad and JPMorgan warn that the market is transitioning into a surplus phase for late 2025 and into 2026.

Geopolitics & trade flows

• Denmark is tightening inspections on older tankers transiting its straits to counter Russia’s “shadow fleet” exports—raising potential chokepoints for Baltic flows.

• The move underscores Europe’s growing unease over sanctions evasion and maritime safety risks tied to aging Russian-linked tonnage.

North Africa’s reawakening

• Italy’s Eni restarted offshore drilling in Libya after a five-year hiatus, joining BP, Shell, and Exxon in reentering the country.

• Libya’s National Oil Corporation aims to lift output toward 2 million bpd, up from roughly 1.39 million currently.

• The return of majors signals tentative political stabilization and renewed optimism for Libyan capacity growth.