Trump Says No Strike on Iran Before the Midterms; Isaias Has Shut In 63% of Gulf of Mexico Oil

Friday, October 9, 2026 | 6:45 AM ET

Brent (December) $103.00 | WTI (November) $90.78

Brent -$1.28 (-1.2%), WTI -$0.71 (-0.8%), giving back part of Thursday’s 4% settlement gain. For the week, Brent is set to finish higher and WTI slightly lower. Trump said Thursday that talks with Iran are “productive” and no attack is planned before the November 3 midterms. The Marine Minerals Administration says Gulf of Mexico producers had shut in about 1.3 million bpd, or 62.9% of current oil output, as of Thursday. China is set to resume October fuel exports after its holiday halt.

Bottom Line

The drop is a response to Trump’s statement that Washington is having “productive discussions” with Iran and that no attack is planned before November 3. That follows Thursday’s reports, including Axios and The Atlantic, that the White House was preparing strike options. The Iranian side moved on paper too: Tasnim reported that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran is reviewing the US response to its proposal to reopen Hormuz within seven days. Both sides are exchanging proposals, but nothing has been agreed. Trump’s pledge covers military action only, and the economic pressure is continuing: on Thursday the US sanctioned individuals, networks and 17 vessels carrying Iranian crude, products and petrochemicals. Brent is still up for the week, so the market has returned only part of the risk premium it added on the strike reports.

Hurricane Isaias is now taking out US barrels. The Marine Minerals Administration put Gulf of Mexico shut-ins at about 1.3 million bpd as of Thursday, up from about 25% of oil output on Wednesday to 62.9%. WTI fell less than Brent today, consistent with a loss of US supply, though the sources don’t tie the two together. Platform shut-ins are usually temporary and the sources give no restart timing or refinery status. Both are the next things to confirm, since the storm’s effect on products depends on the coastal refineries, not the platforms.

China’s decision to resume exports helps products, but not by much. Four traders said refiners will export fuel in October after the holiday pause, and two other industry participants put approved volumes at around 3.7 million tons of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel combined. That is below the slightly more than 4 million tons expected for September and well below August’s 4.6 million tons, though above last year’s monthly average of 3 million. August’s mix was 648,000 bpd of jet fuel, 320,000 bpd of diesel and 191,000 bpd of gasoline. January through August exports were 19 million tons, down 21% from a year earlier. Beijing is clearing shipments month by month, so a reversal in November is still possible if domestic stocks stay low. Reuters notes that analysts see the move easing tightness only modestly.

The IEA’s decision this week to speed up stock releases and prioritize diesel was made under the March plan, per Reuters. That fits Germany’s comments Wednesday that it would issue volumes the IEA had already set, and it suggests the G7’s 100 million barrels is mostly from the March plan rather than new supply.