April 15, 2025

Oil Prices Dip After IEA Demand Cut, Stabilize on Tariff Exemptions and China Imports

Market Snapshot (as of 6:30am EST)

📉 Brent Crude (June): $64.69/b (–$0.19, –0.29%)

📉 WTI Crude (May): $61.30/b (–$0.23, –0.37%)

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🔻 Prices edge lower after IEA joins OPEC in slashing demand outlook

•     IEA cuts 2024 oil demand growth forecast to 730,000 bpd, and 690,000 bpd for 2025

•     U.S. tariff exemptions and strong Chinese March import data limit downside

•     UBS cuts Brent forecast by $12 to $68, warns of possible $40–$60/bbl range

•     BNP Paribas trims 2024–2025 forecast to $58/bbl

•     China’s oil imports up ~5% YoY in March, boosted by Iranian and Russian barrels

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Key Market Drivers

1.    IEA Cuts Oil Demand Outlook

•     The International Energy Agency followed OPEC in slashing demand growth forecasts

•     Now expects 730,000 bpd growth in 2024, down from 1.03 million

•     2025 forecast lowered to 690,000 bpd

📢 "Escalating trade tensions have added significant downside risk to demand," IEA said in its monthly report.

📉 UBS cuts its Brent forecast by $12 to $68/bbl.

📉 BNP Paribas sees average Brent price at $58 for 2024–25.

2.    Tariff Policy Volatility Continues

•     Trump signals potential easing of 25% tariffs on foreign auto imports

•     Recent exemptions for smartphones, computers also lifted sentiment

•     Risk assets bounced modestly on the news, but volatility remains high

📢 "There is still a lot of fragility; the erratic approach to trade continues to weigh on markets," said Onyx Capital’s Harry Tchilinguirian.

3.    China’s Crude Imports Rebound in March

•     Chinese crude imports rose nearly 5% YoY in March

•     Supported by a surge in Iranian barrels and return of Russian volumes

•     Softened some of the demand gloom, but concerns linger over long-term growth

📢 "This helped limit the downside in prices today," ING noted in a morning report.

4.    Tariff Shock Creates Winners and Losers

•     Importing nations (Turkey, India, Pakistan) benefit from cheaper oil

•     Exporters (Angola, Nigeria, Venezuela, Gulf States) hit by falling revenue

•     Morgan Stanley flags Angola, Bahrain as most vulnerable to budget shortfalls

📉 Angola paid $200 million margin call after JPMorgan marked down its Eurobonds

📢 “Losers will be hit harder than gains seen by importing nations,” said Janus Henderson’s Thomas Haugaard.

5.    Frontier Market Debt Trades Unravel

•     Nigerian carry trade under threat as naira faces pressure from falling oil

•     Central bank intervening in FX markets to avoid disorderly moves

•     Budget revisions underway in Nigeria and Angola

6.    Mixed Signals from U.S. and OPEC+

•     U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Iranian oil exports may be fully blocked

•     Talks with Tehran labeled “constructive,” offering sanctions relief hopes

•     OPEC+ output hikes and quota breaches (Kazakhstan) add to oversupply fears

📉 Brent has fallen over $10/bbl since early April

📉 Brent/WTI contango structure signals supply surplus

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📉 Market Outlook: Bearish Bias Persists Amid Demand Concerns

🔹 Key Questions to Watch:

•     Will U.S. walk back more tariffs to stabilize growth?

•     Can China’s import strength hold amid weakening global trade?

•     Will Iran-U.S. negotiations ease sanctions—or collapse?

•     How will OPEC+ balance quota enforcement with rising supply?

•     Can demand growth rebound in H2 or will economic headwinds persist?

📢 “Lower prices benefit some importers, but risks are tilted to the downside overall,” said Monica Malik, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.

📉 Oil producers in Angola, Nigeria, and beyond are already revising budgets, slashing spending, and bracing for more pain.