Morning Highlights: Brent Drops Below $100 on 15-Point Peace Plan; Iran Military Rejects Talks as Ukraine Hits Russian Baltic Ports Again

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Market Snapshot

Brent (May) $99.24 | WTI (Apr) $87.71 Brent -5.25 (-5.0%), WTI -4.64 (-5.0%), session lows $97.15 and $86.59 respectively. U.S. 15-point plan sent to Iran triggers ceasefire hopes; Iran's military command flatly rejects negotiations; Ukraine strikes Russian Baltic ports again; Valero Port Arthur restarting; India books 60 million barrels of Russian crude for April.

Bottom Line

Wednesday's sell-off is the market pricing a ceasefire that does not yet exist, based on a diplomatic process that one side is publicly and emphatically disavowing. The 15-point plan is real -- a source confirmed it was sent -- but Iran's unified military command response was unambiguous: "People like us can never get along with people like you. Not now. Not ever." That is not a negotiating posture, it is a rejection of the framework itself, and it comes from the Revolutionary Guards-dominated command structure that actually controls the Hormuz closure, not from the foreign ministry officials Trump's team may be communicating with through Pakistan. The distinction matters enormously. Even if a political channel opens in Islamabad, the IRGC has demonstrated throughout this conflict that it operates on its own escalation logic. MST Marquee's Saul Kavonic framed the supply picture correctly regardless of the diplomatic noise: even if Hormuz flows resume, it is not clear all shut-in production returns until there is durable ceasefire confidence, and the infrastructure destruction at Ras Laffan, Fujairah, UAE gas facilities and Iraqi southern fields is not reversed by a piece of paper. Iran's offer to allow "non-hostile vessels" to transit Hormuz if they coordinate with Iranian authorities is the most concrete operational signal yet, but it is also a sovereignty assertion that the U.S. and its allies have not accepted and that creates its own friction for commercial shipping operators assessing risk. The Ukraine strikes on Primorsk and Ust-Luga are the second major attack on Russian Baltic export infrastructure in four days, and this one is visibly larger -- smoke visible from Finland, reservoirs ablaze, 389 Ukrainian drones shot down across Russia overnight. Primorsk alone can export more than 1 million bpd of Urals crude, and with Indian refiners paying $5 to $15 premiums over Brent for Russian oil at double February's purchase volumes, any interruption to Russian export capacity tightens a market that is already treating Russian barrels as a primary relief valve. The analyst forecast revisions are worth anchoring on heading into the back half of this week. Goldman at $110 near term with an $85 2026 average, Morgan Stanley above $80 through 2026, and JPMorgan's declining trajectory from $100 in Q2 to $80 in Q4 all embed some normalization assumption. The $120 to $150 scenarios from UBS and Macquarie are explicitly conditioned on Hormuz constraints persisting through April and beyond. With Iran's military rejecting talks today and the 82nd Airborne deploying on top of 50,000 troops already in region, the conditions for Hormuz normalization in the near term are not present. Wednesday's dip below $100 is a sentiment move, not a fundamental shift. The floor will be retested when the market remembers that.

Top Developments

Iran Military Command Rejects Negotiations Entirely

Iran's unified armed forces command spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaqari rejected Trump's characterization of ongoing negotiations in blunt terms, saying the U.S. was "negotiating with itself" and that no one like Iran would ever make a deal with Washington. The statement came from the Revolutionary Guards-dominated joint command that controls Hormuz closure operations, not from diplomatic channels. Iran's foreign ministry separately cited a "very bad experience with American diplomacy" and said Iranian forces are focused on defense, not dialogue. Israel conducted a fresh wave of strikes on Tehran infrastructure including two naval cruise missile production sites. Iran launched new attacks on Tel Aviv, Kiryat Shmona and U.S. bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain.

U.S. 15-Point Plan Confirmed, Month-Long Ceasefire Sought

A source confirmed Washington sent Iran a 15-point settlement proposal, with Israel's Channel 12 reporting the U.S. is seeking a month-long ceasefire to allow discussion of the plan. The proposal reportedly includes dismantling Iran's nuclear program, ending support for proxy groups including Hezbollah, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif offered to host direct talks, with JD Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly expected in Islamabad. The 82nd Airborne is being deployed to the region, adding to 50,000 U.S. troops already present. Read: The gap between Washington's 15-point demand set and Iran's military command saying it will never negotiate with the U.S. is not a gap that closes in a week.

Iran Signals Partial Hormuz Opening on Its Own Terms

Iran notified the UN Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that non-hostile vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with Iranian authorities. The offer is the first operational signal of any Hormuz flexibility but carries significant conditions -- coordination with Iranian authorities implies a vetting process that commercial operators and Western navies have not agreed to and that effectively asserts Iranian sovereignty over passage rights the international community does not recognize.

Ukraine Strikes Russian Baltic Ports Again

Ukrainian drones struck Ust-Luga and Primorsk for the second time in four days, igniting reservoir fires visible from Finland and prompting a full suspension of crude and product loadings. Russia shot down 389 Ukrainian drones overnight across the country. Primorsk can export more than 1 million bpd of Urals crude. Ust-Luga exported 32.9 million metric tons of oil products last year. Both terminals had only tentatively restarted Monday following Sunday's attacks. With Indian refiners paying $5 to $15 premiums over Brent for 60 million barrels of Russian crude booked for April delivery, any sustained Baltic disruption removes one of the market's primary alternative supply sources at the worst possible moment.

India Pivots Hard to Russian and Venezuelan Crude

Indian refiners have booked approximately 60 million barrels of Russian crude for April delivery at premiums of $5 to $15 over Brent, double February's purchase volumes, following the U.S. sanctions waiver expansion. Refiners including Mangalore Refinery and Hindustan Mittal Energy, which had avoided Russian oil since December under U.S. pressure, have returned to the market. India's Venezuelan crude purchases for April are projected at 8 million barrels, the highest since October 2020. Indian officials expect the U.S. waiver to be extended for as long as Hormuz disruptions persist.

Valero Port Arthur Restarting, Analyst Forecasts Ratchet Higher

Valero is preparing to restart its 380,000 bpd Port Arthur refinery this week after Monday's diesel hydrotreater explosion, with workers blocking feed lines to the damaged unit and the plant moving through the staged restart sequence. Separately, major brokerages have broadly raised oil price forecasts: Goldman Sachs sees near-term Brent averaging $110 with a 2026 average of $85; Morgan Stanley expects Brent above $80 through 2026; JPMorgan outlines a declining path from $100 in Q2 to $80 in Q4. UBS and Macquarie retain $120 to $150 upside scenarios conditioned on extended Hormuz closure. Citi and BMI remain in the $70s, reflecting the wide dispersion of outcomes that persists across the street.