Morning Highlights: Democrats Win Congress and Trump Links the Iran War to the Loss as Oil Slips Toward $102

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | 6:45 AM ET

Brent (January) $102.30 | WTI (December) $95.14

Brent -$1.30 (-1.3%), WTI -$0.95 (-1.0%), after Brent was down $2 earlier in the session. Brent settled Tuesday at its lowest in nearly four weeks. Preliminary Vortexa data show Gulf exports at 17.1 million bpd in October, about three-quarters of pre-war levels.

Bottom Line

Oil is lower in a choppy session as the market waits to see what Washington does about Iran now that Democrats have won control of Congress. Trump acknowledged the war played a role in his party’s defeat. Reuters reports the war has been a leading cause of high gasoline prices weighing on voters. Phillip Nova’s Priyanka Sachdeva said Trump’s conflicting signals, with strikes continuing while he downplays escalation, make it hard for traders to build directional conviction. She added that profit-taking and a cut in speculative longs were justified after October’s sharp rally. Those signals are the US strikes on Qeshm Island, which a US official described Tuesday as defensive and aimed at surface-to-air missiles used against US assets, and Trump telling the Financial Times that the US has no immediate plans to strike Iran. A senior Iranian official told Reuters Tuesday that Iran and the US remain far from a deal, and Qatar has stepped up mediation to head off an escalation after the vote. A president who has lost Congress partly over the war has a reason to want it ended, but nothing in today’s copy shows Tehran moving toward the US position, so a reported motive is not yet a path to a deal.

The export data adds a physical side to the pullback. Vortexa put Gulf flows of crude, condensate and refined products, excluding LPG, at 17.1 million bpd in October, down from 18.9 million bpd in September, which was the highest since the war began. The October figure is still about three-quarters of the 22.3 million bpd pre-war level. Crude and condensate averaged 14.0 million bpd, about 86% of pre-war, but refined products were only 3.1 million bpd, just over half of normal. Saudi Arabia held steady near 7.1 million bpd. The UAE had the largest decline, from about 5.6 million bpd to about 4.5 million bpd, and Iraq, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar also exported less. Kpler’s crude and condensate flows through Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman averaged about 16.1 million bpd, down from 17.09 million bpd in September. Both companies expect upward revisions, since shuttle tankers switch off tracking signals as a safety measure and satellite imagery is needed to confirm cargoes. Attacks on shipping around Hormuz reached a record in October. Both datasets exclude Iran, which is not exporting because of the US blockade.

Saxo’s Ole Hansen said the recovery in Middle East crude shipments has begun to weigh on physical cargo prices, which could speed up the normalization of refining margins and lower fuel prices. He cautioned that consumers will not feel the full benefit until Middle Eastern refined product exports recover as well, and so far that rebound is subdued, so relief at the pump may take longer. The product shortfall in Vortexa’s numbers is the same point: crude is getting out faster than diesel and gasoline. The oversupply at the front of the market shows up most clearly in the collapse of prompt Dated Brent, with the Platts pricing windows heavily offered over the past two weeks. Bal Nov DFLs have fallen to just +$0.80 from +$5.00 coming into the week, and the weekly CFD curves are in contango three to four weeks out.

US crude inventories fell by 5.27 million barrels in the week ended October 30, according to American Petroleum Institute data cited by market sources. Eight analysts polled by Reuters had expected a rise of about 880,000 barrels. The EIA’s official numbers are due today.