Morning Highlights: Oil Drops as Trump Downplays Iran Strikes and an Unconfirmed Report Has Tehran Easing Hormuz Demands

Monday, November 9, 2026 | 6:45 AM ET

Brent (January) $94.82 | WTI (December) $88.05

Brent -$3.50 (-3.6%), WTI -$2.78 (-3.1%), extending last week’s 16% Brent drop. Houthis claimed an attack on Aramco’s offices in Riyadh Sunday. A drone attack set fire to the 400,000 bpd Kirishi refinery in Russia overnight.

Bottom Line

Oil fell on a mix of Trump’s weekend comments and an unconfirmed report. Trump said Sunday it was “highly unlikely” he would order extensive strikes on Iran, and Reuters reports he said he is unlikely to order fresh attacks as long as talks to end the conflict progress. He told CNN that depends on Iran signing a “very strong agreement.” He had hinted at renewing attacks after last week’s midterms, but there has been no sign of a large-scale US operation, and Iran has said it would respond by striking US and Israeli targets. Prices then fell to fresh session lows on a report from Israel Hayom that Iran had apparently dropped its demand to control Hormuz and collect transit fees from vessels. Bloomberg said it could not verify it, and I’d treat it as unconfirmed until the US, Iran or Qatari mediators say so.

Other reports cut against it. Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB said the US struck Qeshm Island again overnight, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio played down the chances of a breakthrough in talks. Both countries reported shipping hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. Saxo’s Ole Hansen said oil continues to trade lower on hopes of a US-Iran peace deal and not on concrete signs of progress, with Trump’s latest comments adding to the pressure. KCM’s Tim Waterer called Trump’s tone “more measured” but said the market is waiting to see whether the midterms produced a lasting change in his approach or another temporary shift in tone. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo pointed to the physical side, saying weakness in the physical market, supported by still-elevated flows out of the Middle East, is one factor weighing on prices.

The Houthis said they were responsible for an attack on Aramco’s corporate offices in Riyadh on Sunday. Windows were blown out across several floors of the Aramco Tower in the capital’s financial district by what the Saudi energy ministry said was debris from an attempt to attack the building. The ministry said damage was limited with no injuries or deaths, and it did not assign responsibility. The Saudi-led coalition said air defenses intercepted Houthi missiles over the city in the early hours. The Houthis have escalated their fighting with the kingdom into another front in the wider war with Iran.

Ukraine hit Russia’s Kirishi refinery near the Baltic coast overnight. Leningrad governor Alexander Drozdenko said drones targeted the plant, a fire broke out and has been contained, and that 113 drones were downed over the region earlier Monday. Kirishi processes 400,000 bpd, making it one of Russia’s largest refineries, and it makes diesel, gasoline and fuel oil, mainly for export. It has been hit several times over the past two years, most recently in late August. Surgutneftegas, the owner, has not commented, and Ukrainian military officials haven’t either. NASA satellite imagery shows multiple heat anomalies at the site, but the extent of the damage is not yet known. Bloomberg notes Ukraine is striking Russian energy assets almost daily.