Morning Highlights: Oil edges up as Iraq–Kurdistan deal faces glut forecasts

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Oil prices rose modestly Tuesday as Iraq and its Kurdish region reached a preliminary deal to restart pipeline exports, even as markets braced for higher global supply.

Market snapshot (as of 06:00 EST):

• Brent (Nov): $66.87 (+$0.30, +0.5%)

• WTI (Nov): $62.66 (+$0.38, +0.6%)

Iraq–Kurdistan breakthrough

Baghdad and Kurdish officials agreed with oil companies to resume exports of roughly 230,000 bpd via Turkey, pending cabinet approval. The restart would ease a suspension in place since March 2023 and add to rising OPEC+ shipments, underscoring oversupply risks highlighted by the International Energy Agency.

IEA warns of surplus

The IEA said global supply growth is set to accelerate this year, with OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers lifting output. The agency projected the market could face an expanding surplus into 2026, just as EV adoption and slower global growth weigh on demand expectations.

Why crude won’t crash

Despite months of forecasts calling for a glut and $40 oil, benchmark prices have held steady near $67. Analysts point to two stabilizing forces: China’s heavy stockpiling of crude, which has kept imports strong even as demand growth cools, and the risk of fresh Western sanctions on Russian energy exports. With OECD inventories below their five-year average and floating storage still subdued, Oxford Energy argues the physical market shows no sign of oversupply.

Outlook

With OPEC+ output rising, glut fears remain the dominant narrative—but China’s stockpiling and lingering geopolitical risks are acting as a price floor. As long as those supports hold, analysts see crude stuck in its current range rather than tumbling.