Morning Highlights: Oil heads for weekly loss as OPEC+ weighs supply boost, U.S. stocks rise

Friday, September 5, 2025

Oil prices slipped for a third straight session on Friday, putting benchmarks on track for their first weekly decline in three weeks as growing expectations of more OPEC+ supply and an unexpected U.S. inventory build pressured sentiment.

Market snapshot (as of 6:20 EST)

Brent (Nov): $66.82 (-$0.17, -0.4%)

WTI (Oct): $63.23 (-$0.25, -0.4%)

Cowboys 20--Eagles 24

OPEC+ outlook

Reuters reported that eight OPEC+ members are expected to push for further production increases at Sunday’s meeting. A move would accelerate the unwinding of 1.65 million bpd in voluntary cuts—equal to 1.6% of global demand—well ahead of schedule. ING analysts, however, expect OPEC+ to hold production steady, noting the group has already returned 2.2 million bpd over the past six months and warning that surpluses through next year may require reinstating cuts instead.

Inventory surprise adds pressure

U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a draw. The build reinforced concerns about faltering demand, especially as refiners enter seasonal maintenance. BMI warned that downstream strength has been a support for prices but refining margins are likely to weaken as demand growth slows.

Balancing risks: downside vs. disruptions

Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen said oil is likely to remain range-bound as higher prices risk denting Chinese demand, while some OPEC+ members such as Iraq and Kazakhstan face pressure to compensate for prior overproduction. Still, supply risks remain a floor under the market: U.S. President Donald Trump urged European leaders on Thursday to stop buying Russian oil, a move that could tighten global flows if implemented.

Outlook

The near-term narrative remains dominated by OPEC+’s Sunday meeting. A decision to lift supply would likely deepen this week’s losses, while holding output steady—or any sign of fresh disruption—could provide short-term support.