Morning Highlights: Oil Prices Down, Poised for Biggest Monthly Fall Since 2021

Market Snapshot (as of 06:30 EST)

🔻 Brent (July): $63.28/b (−$0.50)

🔻 WTI (June): $59.92/b (−$0.50)

🧾 Key Highlights:

• Brent and WTI down ~15-16% this month — worst since Nov 2021

• Trade war & recession fears weighing heavily on demand

• OPEC+ supply ramp-up amplifies oversupply worries

• China factory output sinks, U.S. consumer confidence slumps

• U.S. crude inventories up 3.8M barrels last week (API)

• OPEC+ meets May 5 to decide June output plan

Top Drivers:

🔸 Global Demand Fears

Trump’s April 2 tariffs and China’s retaliation ignited the sharp selloff. Analysts expect a global recession in 2025. Oil demand forecasts are being cut fast.

🔸 Supply Pressure

OPEC+ is considering another production hike in June. A coordinated increase could add barrels to an already weakening market.

🔸 Macro Data Worsens

China's factory activity shrank at the fastest pace in 16 months. U.S. consumer confidence hit a 5-year low in April.

🔸 U.S. Stockpiles Rise

API: U.S. crude stocks +3.8M barrels last week. EIA official data due today. Another build would confirm oversupply trend.

🔸 Trade Talk Confusion

Trump claims U.S.–China negotiations are happening, but China denies it. Beijing may exempt some U.S. goods, signaling concern over the trade fallout.

What’s Next:

• Watch for EIA inventory data today (10:30 ET)

• OPEC+ output decision on May 5

• Any breakthrough (or breakdown) in U.S.–China or Iran talks will swing sentiment

“Crude remains under pressure. If there’s no shift in trade tone or a surprise supply cut, Brent could test the low $60s,” said one LSEG analyst.