Morning Highlights: Oil slides to 4-month low as OPEC+ output chatter builds, U.S. stockpiles rise

Thursday Oct 2, 2025

Crude extended losses into a fourth straight session, hitting the weakest levels since June, as oversupply concerns outweighed sporadic geopolitical risk headlines.

Market snapshot (06:20 EST):

• WTI (Nov): $61.35 (-$0.43)

• Brent (Dec): $64.92 (-$0.43)

OPEC+ outlook

• Sources suggest the group could raise November output by up to 500 kbpd, triple October’s increase.

• Saudi appears determined to defend market share, though current production still trails quota levels.

Russia & Europe

• G7 finance ministers pledged new measures to tighten pressure on Russian oil flows, including targeting shippers and intermediaries.

• Geopolitics still humming – The U.S. confirmed it will provide Ukraine with targeting intelligence for strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, reviving questions about potential supply disruption. G7 finance ministers also pledged tougher pressure on countries helping Russia bypass sanctions. Taiwan, facing NGO criticism, signaled it will align more closely with Western allies on Russian energy imports if new restrictions are imposed.

U.S. balances & imports

• EIA reported a +1.8 mb crude build last week alongside higher gasoline and distillate stocks, reinforcing demand concerns.

• Fuel oil imports into the Gulf Coast surged to 541 kbpd in Sept, the highest since Feb 2023, as refiners substitute dwindling Venezuelan heavy crude with Middle East barrels.

Macro lens

• U.S. government shutdown threat continues to cloud economic outlook; traders wary of weaker demand signals if fiscal drag persists.

• China’s stockpiling demand offering some cushion, but overall sentiment remains tilted bearish into Q4