Morning Highlights: Oil steadies after heavy weekly losses as OPEC+ meets, refinery fire hits California

Friday, Oct 3, 2025

Crude was modestly higher early Friday but still headed for a steep weekly decline of 7–8%, with traders cautious ahead of an OPEC+ meeting that could lock in another supply hike.

Market snapshot (06:30 EST):

• WTI (Nov): $60.84 (+$0.36)

• Brent (Dec): $64.49 (+$0.38)

OPEC+ supply watch

• Eight core members could agree this weekend to lift November production by 274–411 kbpd, multiples of October’s rise.

• Saudi Arabia remains focused on clawing back market share, with supply optimism keeping prices on track for their worst week since early August.

Demand & balance outlook

• Analysts warn of a seasonal slowdown in refinery runs and weaker Atlantic Basin demand as summer fades.

• JPMorgan sees September as a turning point, with the oil market shifting into a surplus through Q4 and 2026.

U.S. refinery incident

• Fire broke out overnight at Chevron’s 290 kbpd El Segundo refinery near Los Angeles, hitting its Isomax 7 jet fuel unit.

• The facility supplies ~40% of SoCal jet fuel and ~20% of its gasoline, though officials said LAX is not impacted.

• Analysts expect limited market impact beyond already high California gasoline prices.

Geopolitics

• The Trump Administration is working toward the goal of keeping Kurdistan’s crude flowing in the long term to boost the Iraqi economy, counter Iran’s influence in the region, and benefit U.S. companies operating in Iraq.

• The deal allows 190 kbpd to flow through SOMO, with the Kurdistan Regional Government keeping 50 kbpd for local use