Oil Steady as U.S. Bars Chevron’s Venezuelan Exports, OPEC+ Eyes Output Hike

Market Snapshot (as of 06:30 EST)

🔼 Brent (July): $64.69/b (+$0.60)

🔼 WTI (July): $61.52/b (+$0.63)

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Key Themes Today:

• U.S. restricts Chevron’s Venezuela operations, barring exports

• Canada wildfire prompts Alberta oil production shutdowns

• OPEC+ expected to finalize another July hike of +411,000 bpd

• Saudi Arabia may lower crude prices for Asia

• Iran may allow U.S. nuclear inspections if talks succeed

• Port of Vancouver eyes expansion for full-capacity oil tankers

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Key Drivers:

🔸 U.S. Blocks Chevron from Exporting Venezuelan Crude

Oil prices found modest support after Washington restricted Chevron's ability to export Venezuelan oil, despite allowing the company to maintain assets in the country. According to Reuters, the new authorization blocks any crude exports or expansions of activity.

Tamas Varga (PVM): “Shutdowns in Alberta and talk of more Russia sanctions also helped put a floor under prices.”

🔸 OPEC+ Expected to Confirm July Supply Hike

The market’s upside remains limited as the full OPEC+ meeting later today is expected to set the stage for a July production hike of 411,000 barrels/day, continuing the group’s accelerated unwinding of voluntary cuts. The decision is expected to be finalized by the eight voluntary cutters on Saturday (June 1).

UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo: “Upside remains capped until output direction is clear.”

🔸 Iran Suggests Possible Nuclear Concessions

In a possible breakthrough, Iran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami said Tehran may allow U.N. nuclear inspectors from the U.S.—if negotiations with Washington succeed. While far from a deal, any perceived progress could pressure prices if it signals a return of 300k–400k bpd of sanctioned Iranian barrels.

Tim Waterer (KCM Trade): “If trade and Iran talks progress, oil may find more upside in the weeks ahead.”

🔸 Saudi Aramco Mulls Price Cuts for Asia

Refinery sources told Reuters that Saudi Arabia may lower its official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude by $0.40–$0.50 per barrel for July shipments to Asia, in response to OPEC+’s expanding output.

• Other grades may see smaller cuts of $0.30–$0.45 per barrel.

• Aramco had raised June prices by $0.20/b, reflecting prior demand optimism.

This expected reversal signals Riyadh’s intent to protect market share, especially with lighter Russian crudes like ESPO gaining traction in Asia.

🔸 Port of Vancouver Plans Tanker Expansion

The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority plans to dredge inlets to handle 100% full Aframax oil tankers, drawing criticism from environmentalists. Currently, tankers are restricted to 80% capacity due to shallow waters.

The expansion follows the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, which tripled capacity to 890,000 bpd last year. Oil exports from the port surged 527% in 2024, making Canada’s Pacific Coast a major crude outlet to Asia.

A further 300,000 bpd capacity boost is under review using drag-reducing agents and added pumps—not a third pipeline line.