Russia Pitches Diesel Export Recovery While Trump’s Energy Ceasefire Stays Unconfirmed

Morning Highlights:

Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | 6:45 AM ET

Brent (December) $104.40 | WTI (November) $91.79

Brent -$2.25 (-2.11%), WTI -$1.95 (-2.08%), unwinding Monday’s rally. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia could restore diesel exports to 3.0 to 3.5 million tons a month by year-end. Kyiv says it has not struck Russian energy sites in the two days since Trump’s ceasefire announcement, while Russia kept hitting Ukrainian power plants. Attacks on Riyadh continue, with no confirmed hit on Saudi oil facilities.

Bottom Line

Trump’s energy ceasefire still has no confirmed basis. Asked Monday evening as he left for a rally in Youngstown, Ohio, he said: “Well, they agreed. You know why? Because I said, ‘You agreed.’ That’s why.” He added that he believes both sides support the idea and that Putin is ready to deal, while doubting Zelenskiy is. Kyiv said Tuesday it has not struck Russian refineries or energy sites in the two days since the announcement, while Russia kept hitting Ukrainian power plants and critical infrastructure. The Kremlin said only that contacts are ongoing. One side is holding off with no agreed terms or monitoring. If Kyiv keeps it up, Russian refineries get time to repair, which any recovery in diesel exports depends on.

Novak’s numbers are Moscow’s and unverified. He said Monday that Russia could restore diesel exports to 3.0 to 3.5 million tons a month by year-end and claimed global diesel prices have already fallen 5 to 6% since the deal. For scale, Reuters put Russian diesel exports at about 2.5 million tons a month a year ago, or 3.3 to 3.4 million including gasoil. His figure would be a return to normal despite the refinery damage, and it’s unclear whether it includes gasoil. Russia’s ban on most diesel exports runs through October 31, and no rollback has been confirmed.

In Saudi Arabia the escalation continues, but no oil site has been confirmed hit. The Saudi-led coalition said Monday it destroyed a ballistic missile fired toward Riyadh. Qatar Airways suspended Riyadh and Dammam flights, and Riyadh’s airport ran largely empty Monday after near-total cancellations Sunday, with Lufthansa and Air France-KLM pulling service. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Washington is still refusing direct military involvement despite Saudi requests.

Japanese-controlled tankers are loading Middle East cargoes directly for the first time since February, per Bloomberg. The Idemitsu Maru landed Omani crude loaded at Mina Al Fahal, and shipbrokers expect at least two more Japanese-controlled VLCCs at Fujairah in the coming days. None has entered the Persian Gulf, and Idemitsu says its Hormuz position is unchanged. The Middle East supplied 93% of Japan’s crude imports last year, per Kpler. This is a selective return, not a normalization of Hormuz.