Morning Highlights: Oil Heads for a Weekly Loss as Rising OPEC+ Output Offsets Hormuz Mine Blasts and a Stalled Iran Standoff

Thursday, November 12, 2026 | 6:15 AM ET

Brent (January) $92.04 | WTI (December) $85.76

Brent -$0.72 (-0.8%), WTI -$0.77 (-0.9%). Both fell more than $1 in early Asian trading and are headed for a weekly decline. Two supertankers were disabled by mine explosions in Hormuz on Wednesday night, per Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy.

Bottom Line

The Revolutionary Guards Navy said two supertankers were disabled by massive explosions after they ignored warnings against using an “unauthorized route” in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday night. Iranian state media said they hit naval mines and showed video it said was of the incidents. The wording has changed since the early months of the war, when the IRGC Navy announced direct strikes on tankers. It now reports vessels catching fire after hitting mines on what it calls an unauthorized route in the southern part of the strait, while UKMTO has in several cases said tankers were struck by unknown projectiles. Reuters says other tankers in the waterway are still ablaze, oil spills are washing ashore, and drones and missiles have hit infrastructure across the region. A Reuters survey found OPEC+ crude production rose in October, led by higher Saudi output despite the shipping disruption.

On the diplomatic side, Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei said in televised remarks yesterday that Iran will not allow a single particle of enriched nuclear material to leave the country and warned of consequences if the US launches new strikes. Washington has said nuclear issues must be part of any initial negotiations, while US officials played down the need for further strikes. That is the same standoff after eight months of war. In Ukraine, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators agreed to a major prisoner exchange after two days of talks in Abu Dhabi that ended Wednesday, but US mediators said differences remain on other major issues, including territory. Zelenskiy said Kyiv hopes to achieve concrete results this year.

The shift in tanker freight is the physical story. Baltic Exchange data show rates for VLCCs (excluding loadings inside Hormuz), Suezmaxes and Aframaxes down about 50% from their peaks last month. Last month Asia’s oil costs surged after freight hit record levels as Middle Eastern producers raised exports, which required more ships to carry out ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait. Chinese independents switching to non-sanctioned crude after the US blockade cut Iranian exports, and their rush to use import quotas by year-end, added to demand for tankers. Asian refiners then held back purchases on high costs, which depressed spot prices, and more vessels came free after discharging. Vortexa’s Wanying Zhang said the correction followed improved vessel availability, with the number of laden mainstream VLCCs and Suezmaxes in East Asia up about 15% since early September. In the charts, Mideast Gulf VLCC rates to China have eased far less than the rest, to about $1.2 million a day from a peak near $1.4 million.

That has pulled Asian buyers back to Atlantic Basin crude. Traders said Unipec, Sinopec’s trading arm, bought two cargoes of Congolese Djeno at discounts of about $22 a barrel to dated Brent FOB last week. Brokers said it has provisionally chartered Suezmaxes to load West African crude at worldscale 475 and 410 for late November to early December, and a VLCC at W500 for early December. SK Energy provisionally chartered a Suezmax to load at Gabon for Ulsan in December at W380. Energy Aspects said in a November 9 note that softer long-haul VLCC rates make west of Suez grades more attractive, and that elevated premiums for Russian ESPO crude should support Chinese demand for heavier Angolan grades. A trader said delivered African and Brazilian crude to China is down $5 to $10 a barrel from last month. Brazilian Tupi last traded at a premium of $7 to $8 to December dated Brent for January arrival, against near $20 last month, and a Shandong independent bought 1 million barrels of Angolan Plutonio at about $15 over ICE Brent, versus premiums above $20 two weeks ago. For US crude, Asian buyers are still moving WTI in Aframax-sized tankers of 500,000 to 700,000 barrels because VLCC rates remain elevated, and one trader said Abu Dhabi’s Murban was still about $2 a barrel cheaper than WTI delivered.