Morning Highlights: Trump Holds Off on New Iran Strikes and Brent Dips Below $90 Overnight for the First Time Since August

Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | 6:20 AM ET

Brent (January) $91.20 | WTI (December) $85.85

Brent -$1.37 (-1.5%), WTI -$1.00 (-1.2%). Brent traded below $90 around 5 a.m., the first time since August 31, after settling down 5.85% on Monday. It is about 23% below the $118 six-month high of October 30. China’s October crude imports rose to their highest since March.

Bottom Line

Oil extended Monday’s slide after Trump said he plans to hold off on new military strikes against Iran following appeals from regional countries, including Qatar’s prime minister. KCM’s Tim Waterer said the market continues to prioritize Trump’s more conciliatory tone since the midterms, and that while attacks on shipping around Hormuz are still occurring, they have not escalated in a way that forced a fresh risk premium into the market. A pause in strikes is not a deal. Trump tied the weekend’s comments to talks progressing and to Iran signing a “very strong agreement,” so the market is paying for the tone and not for terms. Brent briefly broke below $90 and has since come back above $91.

The oversupply story continues underneath the geopolitics. Reuters says the Dated Brent benchmark, which prices roughly two thirds of the world’s oil, has weakened in recent weeks. Some analysts see a return to excess supply as high prices cut demand, and JPMorgan estimates the October surplus at around 1.4 million bpd. A Reuters survey found OPEC output rose in October, led by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, even with export constraints.

China’s data shows where some of those barrels are going. Customs data put October crude imports at 41.94 million metric tons, or 9.88 million bpd, up 9.4% from September and the highest since March, though still 13.3% below a year earlier. Imports for the first ten months are down 15.1% year on year. Kpler put seaborne arrivals at about 9.2 million bpd, up 12% and also the highest since March, with a surge from Saudi Arabia: 1.6 million bpd by Kpler and 2 million bpd by Vortexa, against a 2025 average of 1.62 million bpd in customs data. Energy Aspects estimates October refinery throughput fell to 13.75 million bpd, and that crude inventories rose by 6 million barrels, because state refiners held back runs amid uncertainty over export policy. Kpler and Vortexa satellite data showed onshore stock draws of 7 million and 12 million barrels in October, far smaller than the 47 million and 57 million barrel draws in September. Kpler expects the seaborne import rate to run slightly above October’s level in November and December. Product exports fell to 5.18 million tons from 7.16 million tons in September, though they were up 14.6% from a year earlier, in line with the diesel export cuts reported last week.

Russia and Ukraine met in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for their first US-brokered talks since February. US envoy Jared Kushner told delegates recent contacts had “really identified, narrowed the gaps,” and that Trump is committed to peace. The sides are still far apart on terms. Putin has shown no public sign of dropping his demand that Ukraine give up all of the Donbas, and Zelenskiy has refused to hand over land. A US official said negotiators believe both leaders may compromise on territory, while a senior Ukrainian official strongly denied that Kyiv would consider it. A source in the Russian delegation said Moscow sees the main thrust of the talks as a new post-war security framework for Europe, and Russia has made clear it sees no place for Europeans at the table. Reuters notes Trump has often said a deal was close without one emerging. The fighting hasn’t paused: Russia keeps hitting Ukrainian cities and energy facilities, and Ukraine has stepped up attacks on refineries deep inside Russia.